The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) appealed for policy makers quickly to adopt demand-side management strategies helping mitigate or avert power supply issues as the cool Christmas climes transition to the hot summer months up ahead.
The NGCP over the weekend warned of possible power outages in the hot months after Lent as demand for electricity steadily climbs during the period.
It cited a Department of Energy (DOE) forecast peak demand of 13,125 megawatts (MW) for Luzon occurring towards the end of May this year, representing an 8.35 percent increase from actual 2022 peak load of 12,113MW that occurred on May 12, 2022.
The NGCP also said DOE Visayas forecasts a 16.19 percent increase in peak demand this year to 2,691 MW from last year’s actual peak of 2,316 MW reported in September.
On the Mindanao grid, the DOE anticipates a 10.52 percent increase in peak demand to 2,395 MW from last year’s peak of 2,167 MW logged in June.
“Thin operating margins, or the power in excess of demand from where ancillary services or the power used to manage and balance the grid are taken, are forecast for this year. For the Luzon grid, these are the forecast from April to June due to historically high demand during the summer months,” NGCP said.
While the base case projections show rule out so-called yellow or red alerts, there are weeks between March and April when operating margins are below required levels due to high demand and planned or scheduled outages of power generating plants.
Yellow alerts are issued whenever power reserves in the grid are low while red alerts are declared when actual power supply versus demand is insufficient and power interruptions are imminent.
Against this backdrop, the NGCP submitted to the DOE its annual operating and maintenance program (GOMP) serving as consolidated maintenance schedule of the various power plants.
This year’s GOMP approved by the DOE last December showed no scheduled maintenance shutdowns during the upcoming hot summer months.
“NGCP coordinates with the generation and distribution sectors to optimize and rationalize maintenance schedules to ensure sufficiency, at least on paper, of power supply throughout the year. Unplanned shutdowns, which are outside of the GOMP, may still have a significant impact on the supply demand profile if, as in the past years, several power plants simultaneously shut down outside of schedule,” it said in a statement.
It added that while the GOMP is formulated to ensure adequacy of supply especially during the critical months, there have been instances of forced or unplanned outages of plants disrupt the normal operations of the grid and warrant the issuance of yellow or red alerts.
“As transmission service provider, NGCP can only give an overview of the current supply and demand situation and endeavor to dispatch any and all available grid resources. It cannot intervene on matters concerning power generation,” the NGCP said.
| Grid | 2022 Actual Peak | 2023 DOE Forecast Peak |
| Luzon | 12,113MW (12 May 2022, 2:29PM) | 13,125MW |
| Visayas | 2,316MW (14 September 2022, 2:41PM) | 2,691MW |
| Mindanao | 2,167MW (1 June 2022, 2:42PM) | 2,395MW |
SOURCE: NGCP
