The supply of electricity across Luzon are thinning and likely trigger a yellow alert starting late this month, according to the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC), think tank.
The ICSC examined the sufficiency of power supply in Luzon based on demand forecasts presented by the Department of Energy (DOE) in March and found the receding supply could last until around mid-June.
Yellow alerts are issued whenever electricity reserves in the grid are low while red alerts are declared whenever supply versus demand is insufficient and power interruptions are imminent.
“Higher demand during summer lowers the available generating capacity from weeks 17 (April 24 to 30) to 24 (June 12 to 18) of 2023. The supply can further deplete as forced outages of large baseload power plants can unexpectedly occur in these times, likely pushing the system into yellow alert and near red alert levels. This highlights the need to monitor the compliance of all power plants with the Grid Operating and Maintenance Program (GOMP) plans of the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines,” Jephraim Manansala, ICSC chief data scientist, said.
According to Manansala, the DOE already projected 600 MW of forced outages in the April-to-June quarter.
Under the same DOE evaluation, the Luzon grid were to have 15 weeks of yellow alerts but with zero red alerts this year given peak demand of 13,125 megawatts (MW).
To prevent power supply from forcing red alert declarations, which mean power interruptions, the government and industry players must ensure that power plants comply with the GOMP by minimizing outages during this critical period, have enough ancillary services to support power transmission, implement the Interruptible Load Program without fail, and commit to the completion of power projects as scheduled.
Manansala said the recommended contingency plans could help prevent a power crisis this quarter but emphasized that more long-term solutions are needed to address the country’s energy challenges.
“The current grid, centralized on large baseload coal power plants is unsuitable for the country’s variable load demand and recurring supply shortages. Instead, evidence shows that we urgently need to shift towards flexible and distributed power generation using indigenous and readily available renewable energy sources. This will enable us to achieve affordable, reliable and secure power for everyone, while reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and promoting sustainable development.”
Jephraim Manansala, Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities chief data scientist
He said the cooperation of consumers is also crucial in ensuring the continuous supply of electricity in Luzon, which includes implementing energy-saving measures in the workplace, shifting energy-intensive activities to non-peak hours and the use of more efficient technologies to help balance the power supply in the grid and reduce the risk of power outages.
