The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast local pork production this year to remain flat at 925,000 metric tons (MT) instead of 975,000 MT as projected earlier, citing the continued spread of African swine fever (ASF) in new provinces in Central and Western Visayas, including Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental and Aklan.
The revised forecast pork production in the Philippines this year may have indicated prospects of an ASF vaccine recently improving following reports of successful local trials but the US agency argued that even in a best-case scenario, such a vaccine would be “unlikely to materially impact 2023 production.”
The USDA also lowered the projected pork consumption this year to only 1.42 million MT from previous estimates of 1.49 million as “inflation remains elevated.” Such were to limit the expansion of greater pork consumption.
The 1.42 million MT consumption is 4 percent lower than pork consumption of 1.48 million MT last year.
The agency also slashed the expected Philippine pork imports to 500,000 MT from an earlier forecast of 525,000 MT citing unusably high carryover stocks. The revised import projection is 10.7 percent lower than 2022’s 560,000 MT.
Projected chicken production is retained at 1.48 million MT, up 2.8 percent from 1.44 million MT last year as consumers shift from pork.
Chicken consumption is also seen growing 3.1 percent to 1.99 million MT from 1.93 million MT.
To fill the gap, imports are expected to grow by 4.4 percent to 520,000 MT from 498,000 in 2022.
Data show the prevailing price per kg of meat in Metro Manila range from P280 to P340 for pork kasim; P300 to P380 for pork liempo; and P150 to P200 for whole dressed chicken.
