The average farm gate price of dry palay fell to P20.03 per kilo in November, signaling a potential drop in rice prices for consumers in the coming months. This marks a continuation of a downward trend, with the price now 8.7 percent lower than the P21.95 per kilo recorded in November of last year and 2.1 percent down from October’s P20.47 per kilo.
Typically, the farm gate price of palay is doubled to estimate the retail price of rice. As such, this decline in farm gate prices suggests that the retail cost of rice could follow suit in the near future, easing pressure on consumers.
Rice accounts for nearly 9 percent of the average Filipino consumer basket, and doubles to around 18 percent for consumers in the bottom 30 percent income households.
The Philippine Statistics Authority data also highlights significant regional price differences. Mindanao experienced the most variation, with prices ranging from as low as P15.64 per kilo in Agusan del Norte to P27.94 per kilo in Lanao del Norte, reflecting the diverse market and production conditions across the archipelago.
Notably, the most pronounced year-on-year changes were seen in Camarines Sur, where the price of palay plummeted by 29 percent to P16.01 per kilo, and in Samar, where prices surged 51 percent to P22.85 per kilo. These fluctuations may be attributed to local supply conditions and the impact of weather-related factors on harvests.
In Nueva Ecija, the country’s largest palay-producing province, farm gate prices fell by 21 percent to P21.93 per kilo. This price drop is in line with the broader national trend, though the impact of declining prices on the overall cost of rice for consumers will depend on various factors, including transportation and retail markups.
Local production accounts for 78 percent of domestic rice supply, which the difference accounted for by imports.
The ongoing reduction in palay prices provides hope for a potential reduction in rice costs, benefiting consumers and helping address affordability concerns in the domestic market.
