With a growing supply glut in Metro Manila’s condominium market, developers are increasingly looking to regional areas for growth, according to Colliers Philippines. Research director Joey Roi Bondoc revealed that there are currently 75,000 unsold condo units in Metro Manila, with approximately 27,000 of those ready for occupancy, valued at P154.4 billion. This unsold inventory is expected to take up to 70 months—nearly six years—to sell off at current rates.
To address sluggish sales in the capital, developers are turning their focus to regions like CALABARZON, Central Luzon, Central Visayas, Western Visayas, and Davao, which together account for 90 percent of residential real estate loans granted by Philippine banks. Colliers forecasts a significant drop in Metro Manila condo completions, from an average of 13,000 units per year from 2017 to 2019, to just 8,000 units annually between 2024 and 2026. The lowest point will come in 2026, with only 5,300 units expected to be completed.
Bondoc noted a shift in developer strategies, with more focus on resort-themed developments, including golf course communities, and a rise in house-and-lot and lot-only projects. These types of developments have seen annual price growth of 7-8% from 2016 to 2023, driven by demand for leisure and residential spaces outside of Metro Manila.
The outlook for the Philippine property market remains positive, with infrastructure projects like the LRT1 Cavite Extension and Metro Manila subway expected to improve connectivity and stimulate further demand. Additionally, ongoing interest rate cuts and steady remittances from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) are anticipated to further boost the residential sector.
Despite challenges in Metro Manila’s office market, with high vacancy rates linked to the POGO exodus, Bondoc emphasized that opportunities are growing in the countryside, signaling potential for developers to capitalize on the shifting demand outside the capital.
