Inflation in the Philippines could ease further in April, following a drop to 1.8 percent in March—the slowest pace since May 2020—if rice prices continue to decline in the latter half of the month.
Preliminary data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) covering the first two weeks of April show the average retail price of regular milled rice at ₱44.92 per kilo, down 12.6 percent from ₱51.39 per kilo during the same period last year.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages comprise roughly 39 percent of the consumer price index (CPI) basket. Within this, rice holds the most weight at 9.3 percentage points, followed by meat at 6.4 points, fish and seafood at 5.7 points, and poultry and eggs at 2.9 points.
While deflation in rice prices provides a strong disinflationary force, its full impact on headline inflation may be offset by rising prices of other key food items—including pork, fish, eggs, and vegetables such as garlic and onion—which remain under supply and cost pressures.
Earlier this month, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) responded to the subdued inflation outlook by cutting its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the policy rate to 5.5 percent. The move signals confidence that inflationary pressures are easing, although the BSP has remained cautious about upside risks.
Official April inflation figures are scheduled for release on May 6, and will offer a clearer picture of how food price trends are shaping the broader inflation environment.
