The Asian Development Bank (ADB) projects solid growth for the Philippines through next year, with its ability to navigate rough global waters underscored in the slight downward revision of its 2026 outlook.
In its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2025 report, the ADB retained its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast at 5.6 percent for 2025, while adjusting its 2026 estimate to 5.7 percent, slightly lower than the earlier 5.8 percent.
Still, the Philippines remains one of Southeast Asia’s top performers—buoyed by strong domestic demand, easing inflation, and continued investment momentum.
“The Philippines continues to defy the drag of global uncertainty,” said ADB Country Director for the Philippines Andrew Jeffries. “Strong household consumption, government spending, and strategic investments are keeping the economy’s momentum intact, even as global trade slows.”
The ADB’s projection remains broadly aligned with the Philippine government’s growth targets of 5.5 to 6.5 percent in 2025, and a higher 6.0 to 7.0 percent annually from 2026 to 2028. Inflation is also expected to remain within the government’s preferred 2.0 to 3.0 percent range, giving the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas room to support growth through accommodative policy.
In contrast, the ADB trimmed its forecast for Developing Asia’s growth to 4.8 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026, citing heightened US–China trade tensions, shifting global tariffs, and lingering risks in China’s property market.
Regional inflation is projected to drop to 1.7 percent in 2025 before edging up slightly to 2.1 percent in 2026, largely due to normalizing food and energy prices.
With inflation under control and local demand steady, the Philippines appears well-positioned to ride out global headwinds and sustain a stable economic trajectory.
