Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Monday signaled the likelihood of further monetary policy easing, saying recent data suggest little change in inflation and employment conditions since the central bank’s last rate cut in September.
“Based on the data that we do have, it is fair to say that the outlook for employment and inflation does not appear to have changed much since our September meeting four weeks ago,” Powell said in a speech at the National Association for Business Economics conference in Philadelphia. “Data available prior to the shutdown, however, showed the growth in the economic activity maybe, maybe on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected.”
The Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate last month and hinted at more cuts ahead to support a weakening U.S. economy. Powell’s latest remarks suggest the Fed remains on course for additional easing despite limited economic visibility caused by the ongoing government shutdown.
The shutdown, which began October 1, has shuttered federal agencies that provide key economic data, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As a result, the Fed has been forced to rely on alternative sources—private-sector data, internal surveys, and other non-government indicators.
One major exception is the Consumer Price Index for September, still scheduled for release on October 24.
Powell and his colleagues are navigating a delicate policy environment: weighing the need to cut rates to support job growth against the risk of higher inflation, in part driven by tariffs and trade uncertainty.
For consumers, more Fed easing could mean lower borrowing costs across mortgages, car loans, and credit cards—but also slimmer yields on savings products like CDs and high-interest accounts.
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