The rate at which prices change, or inflation, were to have sufficiently eased in March as to have moderated no higher than 8.2 percent, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said on Friday.
In its latest forecast, the BSP said inflation could just as likely have moderated as low as 7.4 percent during the period.
This compares with headline inflation hitting a 14-year high of 8.6 percent in February, which proved just a shade lower than market consensus of 8.8 percent.
“The recent rollback in domestic petroleum prices, lower prices of fruits and vegetables as well as the decline in chicken and sugar prices, are expected to contribute to easing price pressures during the month.
“Upward price pressures for the month are expected to emanate from higher electricity rates in Meralco-serviced areas as well as increased prices of other key food items, such as pork, fish, eggs, and rice. Going forward, the BSP remains prepared to respond appropriately to continuing inflation risks in line with its data-dependent approach to monetary policy formulation.”
BSP Governor Felipe Medalla
Inflation averaging lower than 4 percent in 2021 steadily rose last year as consequence of so-called scarring from the recent pandemic, global inflation caused by supply chain restraints, the war in Ukraine and weather disruptions on food production, as well as by interest rate adjustments made increasingly compelling on authorities as the BSP and the US Fed precisely to combat inflation.
Inflation proved steady between 2019 and 2020 when it averaged only 2.4 percent as pandemic-related mobility restrictions first began to bite, moved higher in 2021 to an average of 3.9 percent but began what turned out a steep ascent around mid-2022 when it averaged 5.8 percent but punched past 8-percent average in the immediate past four months of the inflation survey.
Price analysts and watchers have not been sanguine about inflation and its immediate and medium-term outlook, saying elevated inflation above 8 percent in recent months remain “uncomfortably high” despite assurances and confidence aired by BSP governor Medalla that inflation will continue to stabilize.
Medalla had said inflation were to moderate this year to 6 percent or well above its target of 2 percent to 4 percent and still lower in 2024 to 2.9 percent.
