Moody’s Analytics, the data-crunching unit of sovereign credit watcher Moody’s Investors Service, on Monday projected sharply lower economic output from the Philippines in the first three months this year.
Where the economy grew 7.2 percent in the final preceding quarter last year, the first three months this year should prove less sanguine for the Philippines as local output expansion, measured as the gross domestic product (GDP), was seen sharply lower at only 5.9 percent.
Even Malaysia which has a slightly weaker economy than the Philippines was similarly forecast to generate local output growth of only 4.5 percent from 7 percent a quarter earlier.
The economic managers previously stressed the Philippines will persist on the path to sustained expansion although in magnitude significantly lower than pre-pandemic level. This year, for instance, the $394 billion economy were to grow 5.3 percent as one of three fastest-growing economies in Asia topped only by Cambodia and India.
But only last month, the Asian Development Bank forecast growth in the Philippines averaging higher to at least 6 percent this year and higher to 6.2 percent next year no matter than growth-sapping inflation remains elevated at a four-month average of 7.9 percent at present.
Analysts at the Dutch financial services giant ING had noted that while the Philippines managed to exceed expectations last year by expanding 7.6 percent instead of forecast ranging from 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent, this year should prove different.
According to ING, the mix of resurgent demand, the weak currency and inflation remaining elevated were to pull GDP output growth lower this year to only 5 percent.
This is exactly the kind of output expansion the International Monetary Fund forecast for the Philippines this year.
