Estimated 3Q palay output likely lower at 3.788M metric tons

Palay production in the third quarter, which the government hopes will provide some relief to soaring prices of the food staple, may be lower than the year earlier period, latest estimates by the Philippine Statistics Authority show.

The PSA said that based on standing crop as of 1 August, palay output could fall to 3.788 million metric tons compared to actual harvest of 3.790 million metric tons in the third quarter last year. It added that updated estimate of palay production for the July to September period was also lower by 2.3 percent from its estimate of 3.876 million metric tons in July.

It said the harvest area based on standing crop in the third quarter could fall to 926,950 hectares from 931,750 hectares of actual harvested area in the same period last year. The estimated yield per hectare of palay could, however, improve to 4.09 metric tons compared with the year ago yield of 4.07 metric tons. 

Some 168,070 hectares, or 18 percent of the estimated harvest area, have been harvested with palay output of 693,510 metric tons. Of the remaining 758,880 hectares, 15 percent were at the vegetative stage, 55 percent at the reproductive stage, and 30 percent at the maturing stage.
A publication of the US Department of Agriculture said the Philippines will likely emerge this year as the biggest importer of rice in the world, the same status it had in 2008 when India also banned the export of rice, causing a shortage in global supply that pushed prices of the grain to record highs.  
For corn, the PSA estimated that output in the third quarter based on standing crop may increase to 2.48 million metric tons, up 5.4 percent from 2.35 million metric tons in the same period of 2022. Meanwhile, the updated estimate of corn production based on standing crop indicated a decrease of 3.1 percent from its record of 2.56 million metric tons as of July 2023.
Harvest area based on standing corn for the third quarter could fall to 820,730 hectares from 806,420 hectares actual harvest area in the year-earlier period. Corn yield per hectare could increase to 3.02 metric tons from the previous year’s 2.91 metric tons.