The loss of a sizable area planted to sugar and weather-related events that include the impact of the El Nino phenomenon should tell on the country’s production of sugar in the current crop year when an estimated 5 percent drop in sugar production is anticipated.
This was according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) which has scaled back the projected raw sugar production in the Philippines in the current crop year to only 1.8 million metric tons (MT) instead of 1.9 million MT as earlier projected.
Areas planted to sugar lost a significant amount with the closure of 390,000 hectares in Batangas province when the Central Azucarera Don Pedro (CADP) ceased to operate.
The diminished hectarage add to weather disturbances that tell on production, including the effects of the ongoing El Niño phenomenon.
The USDA said its forecast does not differ sharply from that projected by the Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) of 1.85 million MT of sugar for crop year beginning September 2023 to August 2024.
It was noted that the weather bureau, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services has projected for El Niño to persist from November this year to January next year which coincides with the dry season in Negros island where much of the country’s sugar cane is grown. Earlier, the SRA said about the possibility of a production drop of at least 10 to 15 percent, depending on the severity of El Niño that increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall and reduced yields.
At an estimated loss of 385,000 hectares, this cuts cane production this year by 1.3 percent even though sugar cane farms cropped up in Mindanao compensated for parts of the production loss, the SRA said.
The agency is optimistic the prevailing attractive price of sugar should continue to encourage farmers to plant sugarcane instead of other crops like, corn, cassava and banana.
As consequence of this development, the Philippines is seen importing up to 240,00 MT of refined sugar to stabilize prices and provide two months of buffer stock with sugar demand seen at 2.2 million MT this year.
Department of Agriculture monitoring in the National Capital Region show retail refined sugar ranging from P84 to P110 per kilo, from P80 to P95 per kilo for washed sugar and from P75 to P95 per kilo for brown sugar.
The Sugar Regulatory Administration said mill site monitoring also show the composite price of raw sugar at P3,00.10 per 50-kilo bags.
