The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) forecasts that inflation in April will stay subdued, likely settling between 1.3 percent and 2.1 percent, continuing the downward trend seen in previous months. This outlook suggests easing price pressures for both households and businesses amid favorable supply conditions and global commodity trends.
The BSP attributed the projected moderation in consumer prices to the continued decline in the cost of key food items such as rice, fish, fruits, and vegetables. A stronger peso and lower global oil prices have also helped soften overall inflationary pressures. However, these gains are expected to be partially offset by higher electricity rates and increased fares on the Light Rail Transit Line 1 (LRT-1).
“The latest forecast reflects improved domestic supply conditions and global trends that support price stability,” the BSP said in a statement. “Despite some upside risks, we expect overall inflation to remain manageable in the near term.”
The outlook follows a better-than-expected inflation print in March 2025, when the headline rate eased to 1.8 percent from 2.1 percent in February—the lowest since May 2020. March inflation came in below the market consensus of 2.1 percent, driven mainly by slower increases in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, clothing, and restaurant services. Transport costs also declined further, offering additional relief to consumers.
While the latest inflation trends offer a boost to purchasing power and business planning, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas emphasized the importance of remaining vigilant. “The Monetary Board will continue to take a measured approach in adjusting the monetary policy stance,” the BSP noted, underscoring its commitment to balancing price stability with sustained economic growth and job creation.
With inflation easing and policy settings remaining data-driven, economists expect more breathing room for businesses facing input cost uncertainties, and for households contending with post-pandemic financial strain.
