Headline inflation eased further to just 1.4 percent in April, marking the lowest rate since November 2019, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). The slowdown, from 1.8 percent in March and 3.8 percent a year ago, extends a three-month disinflation streak and aligns closely with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) forecast of 1.3 to 2.1 percent.
April’s inflation rate was driven by moderating food and energy prices, improved supply conditions, and a stronger peso, economists said. Food inflation rose by only 0.9 percent year-on-year, while transportation costs slightly fell, reflecting the continued pullback in fuel prices. Month-on-month, the consumer price index (CPI) declined by 0.4 percent, following similar drops in February and March.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items, held steady at 2.2 percent—the softest pace since February 2022—indicating that underlying price pressures remain contained. The core CPI edged up slightly to 127.80 in April from 127.60 in March.
The BSP, which has kept its key interest rate at 5.75 percent since February, said it views the sustained disinflation as a sign of progress toward price stability. However, it warned of upside risks from elevated electricity rates, transportation fares, and global oil price volatility.
“This signals continued progress toward price stability, potentially opening the door for a rate cut by August if inflation remains subdued,” noted analysts monitoring BSP policy.
With inflation well below the historical average and general elections approaching on May 12, the latest data are being closely watched by both markets and policymakers for their implications on monetary policy, investor sentiment, and public confidence.
