The Department of Agriculture (DA) on Tuesday rejected U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projections that the Philippines will likely require record rice imports of 5.4 million metric tons (MT) this year, calling the forecast “exaggerated.” DA spokesperson Arnel de Mesa said local palay production is seen reaching an historic high of 20.4 million MT in 2025, reducing the need for excessive imports.
De Mesa said that last year’s record rice imports of 4.78 million MT was due to weather-related crop losses. With normal rainfall projected this year and no El Niño, the government believes the USDA’s figures overestimate demand, especially with rice consumption expected to remain stable at 122 kg per capita.
As of mid-May, 1.57 million MT of rice have thus far been imported, with 73 percent sourced from Vietnam. While the DA has not released its own import forecast, it pointed to efforts like the P20 per kg subsidized rice program as helping ease market prices. Still, full price impacts have yet to be quantified.
This stance reflects the agency’s broader confidence in domestic production and signals an intent to balance food security with reduced reliance on imports which are central to the country’s inflation and trade position.
