Inflation in the Philippines is expected to hold steady at 1.4% in May, according to a forecast by Moody’s Analytics released Monday, reinforcing a broader regional trend of cooling commodity prices. The official announcement is scheduled for release by the Philippine Statistics Authority this Thursday.
The projection aligns with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) estimate, which pegs May inflation between 0.9 percent and 1.7 percent. Easing prices of rice, fish, electricity, and oil, alongside the peso’s recent appreciation, have helped temper overall price pressures. However, slightly higher prices for vegetables and meat may partially offset these gains.
The May forecast would match April’s reading of 1.4 percent, itself the lowest since November 2019, as food and transport costs continued to ease. On a month-on-month basis, prices declined 0.4 percent in April, the third consecutive monthly drop.
The BSP reiterated its commitment to a “measured approach” in adjusting monetary policy to support stable prices while ensuring economic and employment growth. The central bank’s broader inflation outlook for 2025 remains at 3.3 percent, but risk-adjusted projections were revised up to 3.5 percent, citing global oil price volatility, wage adjustments, and geopolitical tensions.
For consumers, sustained low inflation means relief in everyday expenses, particularly food, utilities, and transport, but it also signals limited urgency for rate cuts, which could affect borrowing costs and credit growth in the near term.
Despite near-term easing, the BSP warned that inflation could edge upward by late 2025, and said it remains vigilant in balancing its policy tools amid persistent external risks.
