The recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, following U.S. military involvement in Israel-Iran tensions, is expected to add upward pressure on global oil prices due to rising insurance and freight costs, according to Jetti Petroleum Inc. president Leo Bellas.
Bellas warned on Sunday that the U.S. bombing of three Iranian nuclear facilities, as claimed by President Donald Trump, is likely to influence world oil markets once trading resumes Monday. He said that prior to the strike, projected domestic price hikes were already steep — with gasoline expected to rise by ₱4.90–₱5.10 per liter and diesel by ₱3.20–₱3.40 per liter. These could increase further as shipping risks in the region drive up transport and insurance premiums.
Domestic industry players await updated trading results to determine the full extent of the impact. The Department of Energy (DOE) is convening a meeting with fuel stakeholders tomorrow, Monday, to discuss possible staggered price increases and mitigation through promotions and discounts.
Meanwhile, the Kilusang Magbubukid ng Pilipinas (KMP) expressed concern over the consequences for farmers, who face additional fuel costs of up to ₱3,000 per cropping cycle. KMP chair Danilo Ramos warned that this could lead to increased debt or reduced agricultural activity, posing risks to national food security.
Under existing policy, fuel subsidies are triggered when oil prices breach $80 per barrel. For 2025, the General Appropriations Act allocates ₱2.5 billion as transport fuel assistance and ₱585 million as agricultural sector support.
