Confidence among Filipino businesses and consumers softened in the second quarter of 2025, according to twin surveys released by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), signaling a more cautious outlook for the economy amid lingering global and domestic headwinds.
In its latest Business Expectations Survey (BES), the BSP reported that the overall business confidence index (CI) dipped to 28.8 percent in Q2 from 31.2 percent in the previous quarter, as firms cited concerns over potential U.S. trade retaliation, the seasonal end of the sugar milling season, and a typical post-election economic lull. While the index remains in positive territory—indicating continued optimism—it reflects a moderation in sentiment.
Forward-looking indicators also trended downward, with the CI for the next quarter falling to 39.3 percent and the 12-month ahead outlook easing to 51 percent, though both remain above zero. Encouragingly, inflation expectations remain well-anchored within the government’s target, reinforcing business confidence in macroeconomic stability.
Meanwhile, the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) showed that consumer confidence declined modestly, with the overall CI falling to minus14 percent in Q2 from minus13 percent in Q1. Households cited elevated inflation, weaker income, and job market concerns. Despite this, outlooks for Q3 and the next 12 months stayed positive, suggesting underlying resilience in household sentiment.
The BSP emphasized that both surveys remain vital tools in assessing the country’s macroeconomic trajectory. While optimism has cooled, anchored inflation expectations and still-positive forward indicators suggest the economy remains on a path of gradual expansion. The central bank said it would closely monitor both domestic consumption drivers and external trade risks in guiding its policy stance.
