Inflation in June appears poised to continue its descent following May’s six‑year low of 1.3 percent—a drop largely fueled by a sharp decline in rice prices, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).
By the end of June, the national average price of regular milled rice stood at ₱42.53 per kilo, down a substantial 16.8 percent from P51.14 per kilo a year earlier.
Food accounts for about 39 percent of the consumer price index—the main gauge of inflation. Rice alone represents P9 of every P100 spent by the average Filipino, an amount that rises to P18 for those in the bottom 30 percent income households. The sharp fall in rice prices carries significant weight in dampening overall inflation.
However, the deeper dive into food price dynamics reveals a more nuanced picture.
While rice offers reprieve, other staples—including eggs, meats like dressed chicken and pork, bangus, tilapia, and various vegetables—have experienced price increases, potentially offsetting some of the benefits brought by cheaper rice.
For consumers, this means that while day-to-day rice expenses may have eased, the overall cost of a typical grocery basket remains sensitive to volatility in other food items.
The upcoming June inflation figures from the PSA—due July 4—will clarify whether the rice-driven slowdown is enough to offset rising costs elsewhere, or if broader inflationary pressures are bubbling beneath the surface.
For policymakers and households alike, watching this delicate balance will be key to understanding both economic resilience and consumer wellbeing in the months ahead.
The steady decline in inflation has allowed the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to ease monetary policy, the last tweak delivered via a quarter-of-a-percent point cut overnight rates earlier this June.
