The global economy is entering a period of prolonged weak growth and structural disruption, with mounting risks for emerging markets like the Philippines. This is according to the latest Chief Economists’ Outlook, released today by the World Economic Forum.
The report, based on a survey of leading chief economists across sectors, finds that 72 percent expect global economic conditions to deteriorate over the next 12 months. The slowdown is being driven by intensifying trade disruptions, rising policy uncertainty, and rapid technological transformation. These trends, the report notes, are not short-term shocks but signal a deeper structural realignment in the global economic environment.
World Economic Forum managing director Saadia Zahidi emphasized the urgency of coordinated leadership, stating: “The contours of a new economic environment are already taking shape, defined by disruption across trade, technology, resources and institutions. Leaders must adapt with urgency and collaboration to turn today’s turbulence into tomorrow’s resilience.”
Despite the global headwinds, some emerging markets are expected to remain resilient. The East Asia and Pacific region, which includes the Philippines, is seen as a relative bright spot, with a third of economists forecasting strong or very strong growth. However, the report warns that even these economies remain vulnerable to external shocks, particularly those stemming from global trade realignments, supply chain shifts, and fiscal pressures in larger economies.
One of the most concerning findings is the growing divergence between advanced and developing economies. A majority—56 percent—of economists anticipate this gap will widen further over the next three years. At the same time, debt vulnerabilities, once primarily associated with emerging markets, are increasingly concentrated in advanced economies. In fact, 80 percent of surveyed economists expect debt-related risks in developed countries to increase in the coming year.
The report also highlights growing concern over fiscal strain and potential systemic spillovers that could affect interconnected economies like the Philippines. Disruption in trade and global value chains was identified as the most severe risk, with cascading effects likely to be felt across financial markets, innovation systems, and institutional frameworks.
Produced by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society, the Chief Economists’ Outlook is part of the Forum’s Future of Growth Initiative, which promotes inclusive and sustainable economic models. The report was launched during the Sustainable Development Impact Meetings 2025, taking place from 22 to 26 September in New York, in the lead-up to the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026.
For the Philippines and other emerging economies, the outlook underscores the importance of strengthening economic resilience, diversifying trade partnerships, and investing in innovation to navigate an increasingly uncertain global landscape.
