The recent 6.9-magnitude earthquake that struck Bogo City, Cebu on September 30, offers more than just a regional wake-up call—it delivers a national warning.
In a commentary, Daniel Salapong, Director for Office Services at Colliers Philippines, said that the Cebu tremor provides a troubling preview of what could unfold in Metro Manila should the long-feared West Valley Fault rupture.
Although weaker than the projected 7.2-magnitude “Big One,” the Cebu quake left significant damage in its wake: 87 buildings were destroyed or severely compromised, nearly 600 homes were affected, and 257 classrooms were damaged—34 of them beyond repair.
Government buildings such as city halls, health centers, and churches were among the hardest hit. Alarmingly, many of these structures were built with public funds and meant to serve as safe havens during disasters.
Salapong warns that the scale of damage reveals a deeper, systemic threat—corruption in construction and infrastructure planning. A major government audit earlier this year found that P545 billion in infrastructure funds between 2022 and 2025 had been compromised.
Substandard materials, overpriced contracts, buildings not meeting design standards, and even nonexistent projects were cited—many linked to kickbacks as high as 20 percent.
The implications for Metro Manila are dire. With over 1.3 million buildings, about 38 percent are projected to be damaged when the West Valley Fault moves. Experts estimate up to 50,000 deaths and more than 100,000 injuries, largely from collapsing structures.
Salapong argues that the collapse of trust in public infrastructure is as dangerous as the earthquake itself.
He stresses that preparation must go beyond emergency drills and disaster kits. Families must question whether designated shelters are structurally sound.
Businesses need to reassess the resilience of their office spaces and ensure business continuity measures are realistic and actionable. Property developers must exceed minimum building standards, especially in areas near active fault lines. Most critically, the government must take immediate action to audit, retrofit, and reinforce public buildings, and hold contractors accountable for delivering substandard work.
For Salapong, the lessons from Cebu are not just technical—they are ethical. He concludes that when the Big One strikes, what will matter most is not just seismic activity, but whether our homes, offices, schools, and hospitals were built on a foundation of science and integrity, rather than shortcuts and corruption.
