Philippine exports to the US—supercharged for months by aggressive front-loading—are expected to return to more typical levels soon as tariff pressures ease and the trade environment settles, according to Export Marketing Bureau Director Bianca Sykimte.
Sykimte said the surge that began in June stemmed largely from exporters rushing shipments ahead of the U.S. reciprocal tariffs announced in April 2025.
“There has been a lot of advance shipment to avoid the tariffs,” she explained. “At the start of the imposition of the tariffs, exporters were having a hard time. They were shouldering the cost because U.S. retailers did not want to increase their prices.”
The tactic inflated monthly export values to unprecedented heights. Shipments to the U.S. have risen by about 10 percent, with monthly figures averaging around USD 7.2 billion—well above the historical USD 5 billion to USD 6 billion band and marking the first time Philippine outbound trade consistently hit that level.
But the run-up, Sykimte noted, is unlikely to last. With tariff conditions becoming clearer, she expects export levels to “plateau” over the next few months as firms halt the costly strategy of moving goods earlier than planned. Normalization, she added, is a positive sign—evidence that companies will be able to operate under more stable and predictable policy conditions.
Driving the cooling trend is the recent U.S. Executive Order expanding tariff exemptions for Philippine agricultural products. From virtually zero coverage, more than 65 percent of farm-export categories now enjoy exemption—relief that immediately improves margins for producers and reduces the urgency to front-load shipments.
The shift particularly benefits high-value food exports such as coconut oil and derivatives, pineapple and mango preparations, frozen bananas, cassava goods, baked products, coffee, and select spices.
For exporters, the easing tariff winds open the door for more strategic, demand-driven shipment planning.
And for the broader economy, normalization offers something equally valuable: a clearer read of true U.S. appetite for Philippine goods, without the distortion of tariff-induced rush orders.
