The Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) forecasts steady growth for Asia Pacific in 2026, even as the global economy faces tariff shifts, rising AI investment, and changing consumer habits. Global GDP is expected to ease slightly to 3.1 percent, down from 3.2 percent in 2025.
MEI highlights a mix of opportunities and risks. Technological adoption, especially AI, and targeted fiscal support could boost growth, while geopolitical tensions and supply chain shifts create uncertainties. In Asia Pacific, easing inflation, supportive monetary policies, and rising incomes are helping households, while consumers remain tech-savvy but price-conscious, favoring travel and experiences. Tourism continues to drive economic momentum across the region.
Country forecasts show China growing 4.5 percent, India 6.6 percent, and Japan 1 percent. ASEAN nations diverge, with Indonesia and the Philippines leading, while Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand grow more slowly. Australia and New Zealand are expected to grow around 2.3–2.4 percent.
MEI also notes small and medium-sized businesses are embracing digital tools to adapt to changing trade dynamics. While the outlook is broadly positive, ongoing risks—from trade fragmentation to uneven technology adoption—will require governments and businesses to stay flexible and respond to evolving consumer demand to sustain growth.
