The Philippine economy is expected to grow faster in the fourth quarter, helping soften what has been a weak second half of the year, though full-year growth will likely remain below the government’s target.
Most economists see gross domestic product expanding around 5 percent to 5.3 percent year on year in the fourth quarter, a pickup from the 4.4 percent growth in the third quarter, which was the slowest since the COVID contraction in early 2021. Moody’s Analytics, at its latest Asia-Pacific Economic Review, estimates Q4 growth at 5.3 percent, supported by stronger electronics exports toward year-end, although extreme weather continued to disrupt agriculture, infrastructure and household spending.
Private-sector forecasts cluster slightly below the government’s goal. The lender Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., for instance, projects 4.8 percent. From published reports, the Philippine National Bank sees growth in the low-to-mid-3 percent range for late 2025, with full-year expansion below 5 percent. Economic planning and development chief Arsenio Balisacan has said growth could land between 4.8 percent and 5 percent for the full year, still short of the official 5.5 percent to 6.5 percent target.
The weak third quarter was blamed on delayed public spending linked to an infrastructure scandal, a string of typhoons, and softer household consumption and investment. Government officials have described this as a temporary setback, arguing that spending efficiencies and infrastructure budgeting should support a stronger recovery in 2026.
Looking ahead, international institutions remain cautious. The IMF expects growth to slow to about 5.1 percent as higher tariffs weigh on exports and investment, before improving to around 5.6 percent in 2026. Even with a firmer fourth-quarter showing, 2025 growth is shaping up to be one of the slowest outside the pandemic years, underscoring the gap between actual performance and policy targets.
