The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expects inflation in February 2026 to settle between 2.3 percent and 3.1 percent, staying within the government’s 2 to 4 percent target range. In contrast, the Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company(Metrobank) projects a slightly lower figure of 2.4 percent, also comfortably within the target band.
Both forecasts point to a modest pickup in price growth from previous months, but neither sees inflation breaching the ceiling.
The BSP said price pressures could come from higher rice and fish prices, rising domestic petroleum costs, and increased electricity rates in areas served by Manila Electric Company (Meralco).
However, these may be partly offset by lower prices of vegetables, fruits, and meat, as well as the recent appreciation of the peso.
Metrobank similarly expects food, electricity, and rent to drive inflation higher. It noted that rice prices remain a key risk after a temporary import ban slowed supply arrivals, while electricity rates have risen in several regions. Rental costs, which typically adjust at the start of the year, are also expected to climb further in February and March.
Despite the upward pressures, easing pork supply due to fewer African Swine Fever cases and seasonal declines in some vegetable prices could help temper overall food inflation, Metrobank said.
On policy, the BSP reiterated it will closely monitor domestic and global developments to ensure monetary settings remain consistent with price stability and sustainable growth. Metrobank, for its part, warned that a mild inflation pickup could steepen the bond yield curve and limit how aggressively the central bank can cut interest rates in the coming months.
Overall, while price pressures are building, both the BSP and Metrobank see inflation remaining manageable and within target for February.
