The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is reportedly weighing a significantly larger oil production increase at its meeting Sunday, as escalating military conflict in the Middle East rattles global energy markets. Rising tensions follow US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets early Saturday, which Tehran has retaliated against, raising concerns over shipping routes and regional supply stability.
OPEC+ could raise daily output limits by as much as 411,000 barrels in April — roughly triple earlier expectations — with the number possibly climbing further if fighting intensifies. Oil prices jumped Friday in response: Brent crude futures rose 2.9% to settle above $72.80 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate gained 2.8% to close above $67.
A sizable increase would mark a strategic shift for OPEC+, which had paused output hikes for the first quarter of 2026 amid seasonal demand weakness and oversupply concerns. The escalation appears to be reframing the group’s priorities from defending prices to preventing a supply shock.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have already begun increasing exports in anticipation of disruptions. Saudi crude shipments hovered near three-year highs in February, while UAE shipments of Murban crude are set to rise in April. Combined flows from Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE are also trending higher.
Sunday’s decision could set the tone for oil markets heading into the second quarter.
