Headline inflation edged higher in February, signaling renewed price pressures from key food staples even as broader trends remain relatively contained.
The market, however, is bracing for further acceleration in the pace of inflation in the months ahead as escalating conflict in the Middle East pushes crude oil prices higher—a development that could ripple across the economy, lifting costs for food, electricity, transport, and a broad range of consumer goods.
The consumer price index, the country’s main inflation measure, rose to 2.4 percent in February 2026, a quicker pace than the 2.0 percent in January and slightly above the 2.1 percent recorded a year earlier. The pickup was driven largely by faster price gains in food and non-alcoholic beverages, one of the most heavily weighted components in the consumer basket, which accelerated to 1.8 percent from 1.1 percent the previous month.
Core inflation, which strips out selected food and energy items, also inched up to 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent in January. While modest, the increase suggests underlying price pressures are building gradually. A year ago, core inflation stood lower at 2.4 percent.
National food inflation quickened to 1.6 percent from just 0.7 percent in January, though it remained below the 2.6 percent posted in February 2025. A key factor was rice, where prices continued to decline but at a slower annual pace of 3.4 percent, easing from the steeper 8.5 percent drop in January. The slower contraction effectively lifted overall food inflation.
Other staples posted faster year-on-year increases. Corn rose 9.4 percent from 6.5 percent, while flour, bread and related cereal products climbed 2.4 percent from 2.2 percent. Fish and seafood prices also accelerated to 7.7 percent.
However, not all categories added pressure. Oils and fats eased to 8.8 percent from 9.5 percent, while ready-made food slowed to 2.5 percent. Meat prices reversed course, falling 2.2 percent after a 1.2 percent gain in January. Sugar and confectionery prices likewise posted a steeper 0.6 percent decline.
Inflation for the bottom 30 percent income households rose 2.5 percent in February, up from 1.6 percent in January and 1.5 percent in February last year due to higher food prices.
The February data point to a food-driven uptick—manageable for now, but worth watching as supply dynamics evolve.
