Crude oil prices are likely to remain above USD80 per barrel in the coming weeks, but the era of massive pump price surges may already be fading, according to economist and former Albay congressman Joey Salceda.
Salceda said recent market activity suggests speculative positioning rather than a fresh structural spike in global supply risks. he said that roughly 350,000 long positions were added in oil markets last week—levels typically seen near the peak of price rallies. That buildup, he noted, indicates traders may be attempting to keep prices elevated a little longer before exiting positions.
“My price outlook is that oil stays above USD80 for the next month or so,” Salceda said, adding that price movements from here are more likely to be modest. “Expect single-digit adjustments either way, rather than the mammoth increases we’ve seen over the past two weeks.”
For motorists, that could translate into relative stability at the pump. Salceda said a rollback in domestic fuel prices may even be justified later this month if global benchmarks soften.
Still, he warned that Philippine consumers may not immediately feel the benefit of falling crude oil prices. Historically, local pump prices react quickly to global increases but move far more slowly when crude declines.
To address that imbalance, Salceda urged the Department of Energy to explore a “cost-plus” pricing framework.
Under such a rule, oil firms would be required to disclose their actual acquisition costs and apply only a transparent, regulated markup for retail sales.
“Consumers suffered the increases in real time,” he said. “They deserve the decreases in real time too.”
Salceda described the current oil market dynamic as shifting away from outright wartime panic toward strategic brinkmanship.
“This is becoming less a war and more a game of chicken,” he said, as major players look for ways to de-escalate without appearing to blink first.
He added that analysts should also monitor developments in Cuba, which could become an unexpected variable in global energy and geopolitical calculations.
The US has imposed a blockade that has prevented the entry of oil imports to Cuba. but talks between the US and Cuba are now underway to resolve that. Cuba sources a major portion of its oil requirements from Venezuela, which the US raided in January to arrest President Nicolás Maduro.
