The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has issued a stark warning about the escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf, highlighting severe disruptions to global energy, fertilizer, and agrifood systems that could undermine food security worldwide.
Since February, the crisis has disrupted trade through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime corridor that normally carries about 20 million barrels of crude oil and refined fuels daily, roughly one-quarter of global seaborne oil along with substantial liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments and nearly 30 percent of internationally traded fertilizers.
Tanker traffic has collapsed by more than 90 percent, forcing Gulf energy producers to reduce output. Global oil prices surged by 20-35 percent, while European natural gas benchmarks jumped by 50-75 percent in the early weeks, driving up costs across transportation, industry, and agriculture.
FAO highlights that Gulf countries are also major exporters of nitrogen-based fertilizers, including urea and ammonia.
Disruptions to production and shipping have stalled an estimated 3-4 million tons of fertilizer trade per month. Unlike oil, fertilizers have no coordinated global reserves, leaving agricultural input markets highly exposed. Rising energy costs further increase production expenses, compounding risks to global crop yields.
Higher fertilizer and fuel costs are prompting reductions in input use, threatening yields of staple crops such as wheat, rice, and corn. Import-dependent countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are especially vulnerable, as lower fertilizer use and rising food import costs jeopardize both domestic production and household access to food.
Early market signals show global food prices beginning to climb, raising concerns over affordability and potential food insecurity.
FAO urges urgent international action, including securing alternative trade routes, providing support to vulnerable countries, and assisting farmers financially.
Long-term strategies should prioritize diversifying import sources, expanding domestic production, and stabilizing energy and agricultural markets.
The organization stresses that restoring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalating regional tensions are critical to safeguarding global food security in 2026 and beyond.
