Philippine financial markets are expected to remain fragile this week, with investors bracing for continued volatility as risk aversion dominates sentiment and the benchmark index struggles to regain footing above key levels.
Brokerage firm 2TradeAsia said the market is likely to stay in a risk-off mode in the near term, favoring defensive names with strong pricing power and resilient balance sheets. Thin trading during the Lenten break could further amplify price swings, keeping movements erratic.
The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi), which recently slipped below the 6,000 mark to close at 5,972, is seen testing immediate support at 5,800, while resistance is pegged at around 6,050. A sustained move above this range may prove challenging amid lingering global uncertainties.
Investor sentiment continues to be weighed down by persistent inflation concerns and geopolitical risks, particularly tensions in the Middle East that could drive oil prices higher.
These factors are expected to reinforce expectations of tighter financial conditions for longer, limiting near-term upside.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ hawkish pause has also kept markets cautious, with participants watching for potential second-round effects on consumption and overall economic growth.
Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said the PSEi faces near-term resistance between 6,020 and 6,145, with a stronger ceiling at 6,250 to 6,350—levels that remain significantly below the Feb. 26 high of 6,673.61.
On the currency front, the peso is expected to stay under pressure this week, with the US dollar hovering near its record peak of P60.57. Support is seen at P60.00, followed by P59.35 to P59.80, while a broader corrective range of P58.60 to P59.00 could provide a base if market conditions stabilize.
