The peso is quietly reclaiming its footing, with the USD/PHP pair slipping for a second week (-0.3 percent) after a brisk four-week climb.
Call it less a reversal than a pause, one that reveals how sensitive markets are to both technical ceilings and seasonal flows.
As noted by RCBC chief economist Michael Ricafort, a softer dollar backdrop—now near one-month lows—has given the peso breathing room.
Layer in seasonal tailwinds from OFW remittances and pre-enrollment conversions, and the currency finds support not just in sentiment, but in timing.
Still, charts suggest the US dollar isn’t done knocking. Ricafort flags resistance at P59.90, P60.00, and the P60.01–P60.32 gap, with stronger barriers up to P60.50 likely delaying any retest of highs.
On the downside, support at P59.75–P59.60, with deeper cushions near P59.00, reinforces a modest corrective bias rather than a full unwind.
Equities tell a similar story. The PSEi’s 1.7 percent gain marks a second weekly rise, but foreign outflows (-USD41.3M) suggest conviction remains selective.
For 2TradeAsia, “discipline remains the edge” as geopolitical risks and sticky inflation keep markets on alert.
While tensions in the Middle East have eased, fragile shipping routes and oil sensitivities continue to cloud the outlook.
Expect range-bound trading, with technical levels and macro headlines sharing equal billing.
