Vietnam’s rice exports had a strong start in 2025, with shipments in the first half of January increasing by 38 percent to 270,000 metric tons.
However, the chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), which represents 90 percent of the grains shipments of the world’s third-largest rice exporter, has forecasted a significant drop in shipments abroad to 7.5 million metric tons, down from a record 9.04 million metric tons in 2024.
Vietnam is the Philippines’ primary source of imported rice. By the end of the first three quarters of 2024, the Philippines had already imported USD 1.3 billion worth of rice from Vietnam, matching the total for all of 2023.
VFA chairman Nguyen Ngoc Nam attributed the weak outlook to last year’s high export base, India lifting its export ban on non-basmati rice, and improved global weather conditions, which are expected to boost rice production worldwide.
While export volume increased, sales did not keep pace. Vietnam’s rice export receipts rose 23 percent to USD 165 million in the first 15 days of January, signaling that prices have softened.
By January 22, just before Vietnam’s Tet (Lunar New Year) celebrations, the price of 5 percent broken rice had fallen to a four-year low of USD 413 per metric ton, while 25 percent broken rice dropped to USD 387 per metric ton. The average price for 5 percent broken rice in the first 11 months of 2024 was USD 627 per metric ton, a record high.
Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development reported that, as of January 20, rice cultivation for the current winter-spring crop in the Mekong Delta had reached only 1.46 million hectares, below the planned 1.57 million hectares. Harvesting had begun on approximately 85,000 hectares.
The ministry also noted that farmers who harvested rice before Tet faced challenges finding buyers, with prices for certain rice varieties falling by about 10 percent compared to the previous month due to an abundant supply, especially from India and Thailand.
The Philippines is also anticipating a higher rice harvest this year, with palay output expected to reach a record 20.46 million metric tons, thanks to improved weather conditions. Last year, drought from El Niño and several typhoons reduced palay harvests to 19.08 million metric tons, down from a record 20.06 million metric tons in 2023.
