The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) projects the country’s balance of payments (BOP) to remain in deficit over the next two years, as current account pressures persist. The shortfall is expected to stay around 3 percent of GDP in both 2025 and 2026, reflecting a widening trade-in-goods gap, subdued services receipts, and weaker capital inflows due to global uncertainties and shifting trade dynamics.
The BSP attributes sluggish exports and imports to softening global demand, easing commodity prices, and moderated domestic growth. While infrastructure spending and diversification efforts may offer some buffer, structural issues—such as high input costs, logistics bottlenecks, and skills mismatches—continue to dampen export competitiveness.
Growth in services exports, including business process outsourcing and tourism, is seen to moderate due to US reshoring trends and weak travel demand. However, remittances from overseas Filipinos are expected to remain strong, supported by global labor demand and stable formal remittance channels, despite the looming US tax on remittances.
Investment inflows are also likely to soften amid heightened financial volatility and cautious investor sentiment. Still, the BSP highlighted recent reforms, such as amendments to the Investors’ Lease Act, which aim to improve investor confidence. Gross international reserves are expected to remain adequate, serving as a buffer against external shocks.
The BSP reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining macroeconomic stability and engaging with stakeholders to address emerging risks to the external sector.
