Worldwide smartphone makers are ending 2025 with renewed momentum, as global shipments are now forecast to rise 1.5 percent year-on-year to 1.25 billion units, according to the International Data Corp.’s (IDC) latest tracker.
The upgrade from 1 percent reflects a powerful Apple rally, faster growth in emerging markets, and steadier conditions in China.
Apple is the clear driver of the rebound. Shipments are expected to grow 6.1 percent in 2025, well above the earlier 3.9 percent projection, due to intense demand for the iPhone 17.
“Apple is set to have a record year in 2025 with shipments forecast to cross 247 million units,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC.
In China, Apple’s largest market, the company ranked first in October and November with more than 20 percent share. That surge pushed IDC to shift its 2025 China outlook from a 1 percent decline to 3 percent growth.
Globally, Apple’s shipment value is projected to rise 7.2 percent to more than 261 billion dollars.
The momentum, however, may be short-lived. IDC expects a 0.9 percent decline in global shipments in 2026 as component shortages intensify and product cycles shift.
Apple’s decision to move its next base-model iPhone to early 2027 is expected to reduce iOS volumes by 4.2 percent next year. A tightening memory supply will also pressure Android vendors, particularly in the lower and mid tiers where price sensitivity is highest.
Even with fewer units shipping, the market’s value is set to climb. Higher average selling prices, which are projected to reach a record USD465, will help push total smartphone market value to USD578.9 billion in 2026.
“Manufacturers face increasing pressure to raise prices,” said IDC’s Anthony Scarsella, who noted that many vendors will pivot toward higher-margin models to offset rising memory costs.
