The peso is likely to stay under pressure after breaking the 60:$1 mark, with volatility risks skewed to the upside, according to analyst Michael Ricafort. The currency closed at a record P60.10 on March 19 as renewed Middle East tensions drove oil prices higher—fueling inflation concerns and widening the country’s trade gap.
Ricafort said the Philippines’ heavy reliance on imported oil is amplifying dollar demand, just as higher US Treasury yields and a stronger greenback tighten external conditions. While the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is expected to step in, intervention will likely aim to curb volatility rather than defend a specific level.
The peso is seen trading between P59.25 and P60.40 against the US dollar in the near term, with the policy outlook hinging on inflation trends and the potential for further rate hikes.
On equities, the tone is similarly cautious. The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange Index slipped 0.67 percent week-on-week to 6,018, with broad-based declines and thinner turnover pointing to risk aversion, according to 2TradeAsia.
Escalating geopolitical tensions and a still-hawkish Federal Reserve are keeping markets on edge, while surging oil prices raise the specter of “imported inflation.” 2TradeAsia now flags this as a base-case scenario—one that could push inflation above target and erode consumer spending power.
In this environment, investors are being steered toward liquidity and defensive, high-yield names as markets grapple with rising stagflation risks. Near-term direction may also be shaped by first-quarter window dressing and the shortened trading calendar ahead of the Holy Week.
Technically, immediate support is seen at 6,000, with a deeper floor at 5,800. Resistance is pegged at 6,300–6,400, with any sustained rebound likely contingent on clearer signs of geopolitical de-escalation.
