The Philippines is not running out of people. It is running out of excuses.
According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, the country’s population will swell to 123.96 million by 2035, up from 109.20 million in 2020. That is nearly 15 million additional Filipinos in 15 years—roughly one extra person for every jeepney seat, classroom desk, and hospital bed that was never built. The annual growth rate of 0.85 percent sounds tame, but in a country already straining at the seams, “moderate” growth is anything but.
This is no longer the story of a baby boom. It is the story of momentum. Even with smaller families, population keeps rising—and so does demand for jobs, housing, transport, food, and electricity. Growth that does not feel explosive still accumulates, like traffic on EDSA at rush hour: slow, steady, and suddenly unbearable.
Geography sharpens the challenge. CALABARZON is projected to reach 19.07 million people by 2035, cementing its role as the country’s demographic shock absorber. NCR follows with 14.49 million, then Central Luzon at 14.02 million. Together, they form a mega-region that fuels consumption and GDP, while exporting congestion, pollution, and marathon commutes. If development continues to orbit this corridor, the rest of the country risks becoming either a labor reserve or an afterthought.
The projections, however, hint at a shift. BARMM’s population growth rate is expected to rise to 1.79 percent, the fastest nationwide. That can be a demographic dividend—or a demographic trap. A young, growing population is an asset only if schools, healthcare, peace, and jobs arrive on time. Otherwise, numbers quickly turn into pressure.
Metro Manila, for its part, is aging and slowing. Its growth rate is projected to ease to 0.40 percent by 2035, not because life there is easier, but because it is harder. People are moving outward—to Cavite, Bulacan, and Rizal—where cities such as Antipolo and San Jose del Monte are quietly becoming megacities without megacity budgets.
The gender balance adds another wrinkle. Nationally, men will slightly outnumber women, but NCR and BARMM break the pattern. These differences matter for labor markets, migration, and social services, yet they rarely factor into planning.
The real question is not how many Filipinos there will be. It is whether the country can finally align population, productivity, and place. Growth is inevitable. Development is not.
