For the first time, a hypothetical presidential-vice presidential tandem led by former Vice President Leni Robredo has numerically overtaken a team-up of Vice President Sara Duterte and Senator Imee Marcos, according to an Octa Research survey that offers an intriguing, if hardly decisive, early snapshot of the 2028 race.
The second-quarter Tugon ng Masa survey put Robredo and Senator Raffy Tulfo at 45 percent, against 42 percent for Duterte and Marcos. Eight percent said they would vote for neither tandem, 4 percent were undecided, and 1 percent declined to answer.
The result marks the first time a Robredo-led tandem has topped Duterte-Marcos in Octa’s hypothetical matchups. But before anyone starts printing campaign tarpaulins, Octa cautioned that the three-point gap is statistically indistinguishable within the survey’s margin of error.
The face-to-face survey of 1,200 adults was conducted from July 4 to 11 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.
Octa said the race remains effectively tied, with the possible ranges putting Robredo-Tulfo at 42 percent to 48 percent and Duterte-Marcos at 39 percent to 45 percent.
Still, the geographic split is telling. Robredo-Tulfo led decisively in Metro Manila, at 56 percent, and the rest of Luzon, at 61 percent. Duterte-Marcos held stronger positions in Mindanao and Central Visayas, underscoring how regional the hypothetical contest remains.
The socioeconomic divide was also pronounced. Robredo-Tulfo led among Classes ABC and D, while Duterte-Marcos dominated Class E. Duterte-Marcos also led among respondents aged 25 to 44, while Robredo-Tulfo was ahead among those aged 18 to 24 and 55 to 64.
Education produced a surprise. Duterte-Marcos led among college and postgraduate respondents, 40 percent to 36 percent, while Robredo-Tulfo had a commanding 54 percent to 30 percent advantage among vocational graduates.
The numbers are not a forecast, much less a verdict. But they do suggest that the 2028 contest may already be shifting from a familiar political script into something considerably less predictable.
