The Department of Agriculture confirmed that rice imports are on track to surpass 5 million metric tons this year, a figure that would exceed the previous all-time high of 4.81 million MT recorded in 2024. As of September 24, 2026, actual arrivals already stood at 3.98 million MT, putting the country well within reach of the higher import volume. DA Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa clarified that this increased import level is not viewed negatively, as it is a necessary measure to guarantee sufficient rice supply throughout the duration of the Super El Niño event projected to persist from late 2026 through the first half of 2027. State weather bureau PAGASA has warned that the prolonged dry spell will hit hardest between November and April, threatening agriculture, fisheries, and livestock, risking supply chain disruptions, and driving up food costs and inflation.
De Mesa explained that El Niño-related dry conditions are expected to reduce local palay output by approximately 700,000 MT during the second-half main harvest, though the exact impact will depend on how severe the weather turns out. Importing beyond the 5 million MT mark will ensure the country maintains a 75-day rice stockpile by year-end, enough to weather supply shortfalls until normal harvests resume. The priority remains securing steady supply rather than limiting import volumes, he emphasized, adding that the government is equally focused on supporting farmers who stand to lose income from reduced planting capacity due to lack of water. Assistance will come from both the DA and the Department of Social Welfare and Development, including alternative livelihood programs to help households dependent on farming and fishing get through the lean period. Affordability, availability, and accessibility of food remain the administration’s core goals amid the crisis, de Mesa stated.
Data from the Bureau of Plant Industry shows Vietnam remains the Philippines’ top rice supplier, accounting for 2.72 million MT or 68 percent of total imports received so far this year. Latest DA price monitoring in Metro Manila as of October 5 shows non-program local well-milled rice selling at P50 per kilogram and local regular-milled at P48 per kg. Imported well-milled rice is priced at P48 per kg and imported regular-milled at P43 per kg. Special-variety local and imported rice both reach P60 per kg, while premium local rice is at P55 per kg and premium imported rice at P50 per kg.
