The Department of Agriculture (DA) on Tuesday project rice imports next year falling below 4 million metric tons (MT) as local production makes up for and hits a new record.
According to the DA, rice imports next year are estimated at only around 3.6 million to 3.8 million MT, enough to meet demand without hurting farmgate palay prices.
Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said rice importers have agreed to better match import volumes with domestic supply to keep rice affordable while protecting farmers’ incomes.
The estimate is based on DA projections that palay output in 2026 will reach 20.3 million MT, close to this year’s target but higher than actual output affected by flooding and other weather problems. Record harvest of 20.06 million MT was posted in 2023.
Prior to the four-month rice import ban ended this year, the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI) processed import clearances of some 500,000 MT, including 50,000 MT for government agencies. Shipments must have been in by mid-February, the DA said, to help keep palay prices down in the subsequent summer harvest.
When imports resume, tariffs will increase to 20 percent from 15 percent under the scenario. The DA will also waive the usual 10-percent down payment for import clearances to ease importers’ cash flow.
Rice imports in the January and February period next year will be limited to 17 ports nationwide. The DA also urged traders to diversify sources beyond Vietnam, including Cambodia and Myanmar.
The Philippines imported a record 4.8 million MT in 2024 amid weather-related supply concerns. For this year, the Bureau of Plant Industry estimates imports at around 3.5 million MT, down 27 percent due to the import freeze that began in September.
The DA said heavy imports in 2024 and early 2025 hurt palay prices and farmers’ incomes. While the US Department of Agriculture projected rice imports at 5.5 million MT for 2025–2026, the DA said this was unlikely given tighter controls.
BPI data show rice imports from January to December 11, 2025 reached 3.35 million MT, with Vietnam supplying 81.3 percent.
As of December 15, local well-milled rice in Metro Manila averaged P43.61 per kilo, while imported well-milled rice sold at P44.78 per kilo. These prices are market-based and not subsidized.
