Metro Manila’s condominium market remains weighed down by stubborn oversupply, but the imbalance is quietly shifting negotiating power toward buyers with patience and liquidity.
Speaking at the Pandesal Forum on February 4, Joey Bondoc, research director at Colliers Philippines, said conditions are improving only gradually.
As of early 2026, unsold ready-for-occupancy units represent 7.9 years’ worth of inventory. While that is a sharp improvement from the 13.4-year peak recorded in mid-2025, the backlog remains heavy and will take time to absorb.
For buyers, excess supply is translating into leverage.
“Developers are showing flexibility with easier payment terms and are prudently limiting new launches to manage supply,” Bondoc said.
Many projects are now offering extended downpayment schedules, deferred balances, and more aggressive promotional packages to clear completed inventory.
Macroeconomic pressures continue to weigh on demand. The economy expanded just 4.4 percent in 2025, the slowest growth rate in more than a decade outside the pandemic years, softening household confidence and purchasing power.
Mortgage rates also remain elevated at around 7.6 percent, keeping monthly amortizations high and pushing many end-users to the sidelines.
“For sales to truly pick up, we need borrowing costs to ease,” Bondoc said.
The challenging environment is prompting several developers to shift their focus beyond Metro Manila, where land prices are lower and demand conditions are less saturated. Provincial growth corridors are increasingly viewed as more sustainable in the near term.
Despite the headwinds, Moby Arquiza, co-founder of the ASEAN Real Estate Network Alliance, said current conditions favor buyers. Cash-ready purchasers can negotiate discounts of 10 to 20 percent, while others are securing longer payment terms—concessions rarely offered during market upswings.
For now, financing remains tight, but pricing power has clearly moved toward buyers.
