The Philippines is expected to welcome 6.3 million international visitors by 2028, leaving arrivals nearly 2 million short of the pre-pandemic peak even as tourism across Asia-Pacific rebounds beyond 2019 levels.
The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) forecasts Philippine arrivals at 5.72 million in 2026 before rising to 6.3 million in 2028, compared with 8.26 million in 2019.
The Philippines is also projected to rank sixth in Southeast Asia in 2026 arrivals, behind Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore and Indonesia.
PATA Project Management Director Pavnesh Kumar said Asia-Pacific tourism is on track for a stronger recovery, with the region expected to draw 714.9 million visitors in 2026, or 105 percent of 2019 levels. Arrivals are projected to climb further to 789.2 million by 2028.
“Growth is back, but it requires strategic positioning to capture,” Kumar said, citing visa policies, infrastructure and niche marketing as areas where the Philippines could draw lessons from Thailand.
The projections were presented as the Philippines opened the 37th National Statistics Month, underscoring the importance of tourism data in shaping a more competitive and resilient industry.
The recovery, however, faces a more challenging external environment.
UN Tourism Market Intelligence, Policies and Competition Director Sandra Carvao said Asia-Pacific international arrivals grew just 1% in the first half of 2026, down sharply from 8 percent growth in 2025 amid geopolitical and economic pressures.
Still, Carvao said the outlook “remain[s] relatively positive,” with 46 percent of tourism experts in Asia-Pacific expecting conditions to improve from September through December.
Tourism remained a major economic driver for the Philippines in 2025, directly contributing P2.28 trillion, or 8.1 percent, to the economy and supporting an estimated 7.7 million jobs, according to government data presented at the event.
