Philippine merchandise exports are on track to breach USD100 billion in 2026, buoyed by electronics and semiconductor shipments, although a weakening peso and unpredictable US trade policies threaten to complicate the industry’s growth prospects.
Trade Undersecretary Ceferino Rodolfo expressed confidence that exports would exceed the milestone, citing robust shipments through September, but declined to give a higher forecast.
“For sure, we will exceed USD100 billion,” Rodolfo said.
Philippine Exporters Confederation president Sergio Ortiz-Luis Jr. was more bullish, projecting exports could reach approximately USD108 billion and describing the sector as one of the economy’s brighter spots.
He cautioned, however, that the peso’s depreciation was proving less beneficial to exporters than it might appear, particularly manufacturers heavily dependent on imported materials.
Electronics and semiconductor producers source about 70 percent of their raw materials from abroad, exposing them to higher production costs even as the weaker peso increases the value of their dollar-denominated earnings.
“When they import, they lose. It’s expensive. But when they export, they earn more,” Ortiz-Luis said.
He added that other Asian currencies had also weakened, limiting the Philippines’ exchange-rate advantage and forcing exporters to remain competitive on costs.
Beyond sustaining export growth, Rodolfo said the country must address its structural dependence on imported inputs to narrow the trade deficit more sustainably.
He pointed to renewable energy and automotive manufacturing as potential areas for import substitution, while urging the domestic processing of mineral resources to capture more value locally.
Nickel ore exports to Indonesia, for instance, jumped from USD16 million in 2023 to USD725 million in 2025, highlighting the scale of opportunities in downstream processing.
“We really have to add value to the minerals that we have,” Rodolfo said.
Ortiz-Luis, meanwhile, warned that shifting US tariff policies could disrupt export momentum, underscoring the industry’s exposure to external trade decisions even as it approaches a record milestone.
