The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expects inflation in April 2026 to climb sharply, forecasting a range of 5.6 percent to 6.4 percent, signaling intensifying price pressures across the economy.
The central bank said Thursday risks to inflation have increased, driven mainly by higher domestic fuel prices, rising costs of key food items such as rice, fish, and meat, increased electricity rates, and the continued weakness of the peso. While lower prices for vegetables and fruits may provide some relief, the BSP warned that upside risks remain significant and require close monitoring.
The BSP said it will stay vigilant and continue to rely on incoming data, particularly on inflation and economic growth. It also noted that developments in the Middle East could affect global oil prices and, in turn, domestic inflation and economic activity.
The latest forecast follows a sharp rise in inflation in March 2026, when the annual rate accelerated to 4.1 percent, the highest since July 2024. This exceeded both market expectations and the BSP’s target range of 2npercent to 4 percent.
The surge was largely driven by transport costs, which jumped 9.9 percent due to steep increases in gasoline and diesel prices. Food, housing, and other essential goods also recorded faster price increases, indicating broad-based inflation pressures.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 1.4 percent in March, the fastest pace since early 2023, while core inflation—which excludes volatile items—also edged higher to 3.2 percent.
With inflation already trending upward, the BSP’s April projection suggests that price pressures are far from easing, reinforcing expectations of continued close policy monitoring in the months ahead.
