The Philippine hog sector is recovering faster than expected from African swine fever, but rising pork demand will keep the country heavily dependent on imports, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service in Manila raised its 2026 forecast for Philippine pork production to 1.02 million metric tons (MMT) carcass weight equivalent, up 4.1 percent from 2025.
The revision reflects stronger-than-expected local output following the resurgence of ASF in late 2024 and early 2025. Philippine Statistics Authority data cited by FAS showed swine production reached 841,000 tons in the first half of 2026, up 5.6 percent from 795,000 tons a year earlier.
FAS attributed the recovery to improved farm biosecurity and smallholders continuing to raise hogs despite the disease threat.
But the rebound is not enough to close the supply gap. FAS also raised its 2026 pork import forecast by 4 percent to 780,000 tons, with Brazil emerging as the dominant supplier.
Brazil accounted for 67 percent of Philippine pork imports from January to May, benefiting from competitive prices and favorable market access.
The supply gap could widen next year. FAS projects Philippine pork production to increase another 4.4 percent in 2027 to 1.06 MMT, while consumption is expected to grow 6.4 percent to 1.9 MMT.
That would lift imports by 7.1 percent to 835,000 tons, underscoring the limits of the domestic recovery even as hog production continues to rebuild.
Weather also poses a risk. FAS said a strong El Niño could slow production gains through higher feed costs and weaker animal productivity.
The outlook points to a gradual recovery in domestic hog production, but also to continued pressure on the Philippines to secure affordable imported pork as consumption outpaces local supply.
