SM Investments Corp., the flagship investment holding company of the SM Group, is tempering ambition with vigilance as it looks toward 2026, flagging geopolitical turbulence and oil-driven inflation as key swing factors for growth.
President and chief executive officer Frederic C. DyBuncio struck a measured tone, acknowledging that escalating tensions in the Middle East have injected uncertainty into the Philippine economic outlook.
“The recent developments in the Middle East are very new. We still don’t know what impact they will have on the Philippine economy. It really depends on how long the war will last,” DyBuncio said.
Crude prices hovering around USD77 per barrel are already raising eyebrows. Higher oil costs could stoke inflation at home, squeeze consumer spending and pressure margins. “That will obviously feed into inflation in the Philippines,” he warned, adding that the duration of the conflict will dictate the severity of its impact.
Remittances are another pressure point. About 16 percent of overseas Filipino worker inflows come from the Middle East. Any disruption could dampen consumption, particularly in provincial markets that rely heavily on OFW income.
Yet DyBuncio remains “cautiously optimistic,” underscoring the conglomerate’s diversified earnings engine. Banking, property, retail and portfolio investments provide what he calls “multiple profit drivers” capable of absorbing external shocks.
SMIC plans to open three to four new malls in 2026, add more than 200 Alfamart stores, deepen provincial banking reach and push ahead with large-scale property developments. The group is also maintaining conservative leverage while sustaining capital returns through dividends and share buybacks.
Volatility may test the macro environment, but SMIC is betting that scale, diversity and disciplined capital management will keep its long-term growth story intact.
