Food, not fuel, may prove the first and most immediate casualty of the Middle East conflict as disruption grips the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea lane with an outsized role in feeding the world.
Data from the International Energy Agency show that traffic through the Strait has effectively stalled, choking flows not only of oil and gas but also of fertilizers and industrial inputs essential to modern agriculture. The pressure is already building across global food systems.
Fertilizer supply is particularly exposed. More than 30 percent of global urea trade passes through Hormuz, along with about 20 percent of ammonia and phosphate shipments. These are core nutrients that sustain crop yields across Asia, Africa, and beyond. Any prolonged disruption risks tightening supply, raising costs for farmers, and pushing food prices higher.
The problem runs deeper.
Fertilizer production depends heavily on natural gas, yet over 110 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas moved through the Strait in 2025, with no meaningful alternative routes. Supply constraints in LNG could therefore limit fertilizer output itself, compounding the strain on agriculture.
Energy markets remain under pressure as well. Around a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade transits Hormuz, most of it destined for Asian markets.
With only limited pipeline capacity available in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to bypass the Strait, any sustained disruption could lift fuel prices. That would raise costs for farm operations, irrigation, and food distribution.
Other critical materials are also at risk. About half of global seaborne sulphur trade moves through the same corridor. Sulphur is used to produce sulphuric acid, a key component in fertilizers and in processing minerals needed across agricultural supply chains.
The Strait also serves as a route for aluminium exports from Gulf producers, a metal widely used in infrastructure and manufacturing tied to food systems.
Bottomline, the disruption links geopolitics directly to global food security. The longer the Strait remains constrained, the greater the risk of reduced harvests, rising food inflation, and increased vulnerability for import dependent nations.
