Economy

The Philippine economy is headed for a sharper slowdown in 2026 as elevated energy costs, weak public investment and subdued business confidence weigh on domestic demand, the World Bank said, while lowering its growth outlook for next year.

Philippine inflation surged to 7.2 percent in September, matching the pace in April, which is the fastest rate in three-and-a-half years and putting the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas under renewed pressure to tighten monetary policy.

The Philippines’ economic rebound will depend heavily on how quickly public investment and construction activity recover, with the energy shock and domestic flood-control issues weighing on growth, according to the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).

The Philippines is already experiencing a strong El Niño, but its impact could worsen in early 2027 as rainfall declines across more provinces, prompting the government to accelerate preparations for possible drought, water shortages and agricultural losses.

Retail sales this year are projected to reach $123 billion, roughly ₱7.71 trillion at current exchange rate, marking a 1.7 percent growth from $121 billion last year, according to the United States Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service in Manila.