The Department of Energy (DOE) insists that only so-called yellow alerts are expected in the Luzon and Visayas grids in the dry summer months ahead regardless of calls for the government to mitigate the feared power supply deficit for the period.
“At present, based on the power outlook released last January, we do not anticipate such a situation to happen. There could be yellow alerts in Luzon and the Visayas but not brownouts,” said DOE undersecretary Rowena Guevara.
Yellow alerts are critical times and issued only when electricity reserves in the grid is low but power interruptions are considered not yet imminent.
Guevara’s explanation surfaced in the wake of the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines’ (NGCP) call for policy makers quickly to explore the demand side management strategies and avert possible power supply issues in the dry season ahead when electricity demand typically surges.
At present, according to Guevara, there is still enough contingency reserves and the worst that could happen should unscheduled power plant shutdowns occur in the dry months is that that various power generating facilities run on more expensive fuel.
Only in January, Guevara said the Luzon grid could experience at least 12 weeks of yellow alerts this year based on the grid operating management plan that assumes only 600 megawatts (MW) of capacity will be under forced outage.
Guevara said the yellow alerts are seen on March 12 to 18; March 26 to April 1; April 23 to 29, the entire month of May; June 1 to 10; August 27 to September 2; October 15 to 21 and; November 19 to 25.
However, Guevara said if 420 MW of diesel-fired power plants are operated as needed, yellow alert may only be hoisted for one week or from April 30 to May 6.
Guevara also said the Visayas grid may not experience any supply deficiency in the daytime when the solar power plants are active but there could be five weeks of yellow alerts in the evenings in the second half of the year.
The NGCP in February warned that power supply in the dry summer months could thin due to higher electricity demand.
The company cited DOE forecasts indicating total peak demand of 13,125 MW in Luzon occurring towards the end of May, an 8.35 percent increase from actual 2022 peak load of 12,113MW that occurred in May 12, 2022.
The DOE forecasts a 16.19 percent increase in peak demand in the Visayas grid this year equal to 2,691 MW from last year’s actual peak of 2,316 MW in September.
NGCP said the DOE sees Mindanao to have a 10.52-percent increase in peak demand at 2,395 MW from last year’s peak of 2,167 MW logged in June.
