The Management Association of the Philippines (MAP) expects business conditions to remain subdued through the fourth quarter of 2026, with limited prospects for a consumer-led rebound before yearend, even as it sees a stronger recovery taking shape in 2027.
MAP President Donald Lim said businesses already have a clearer picture of their full-year performance after slower economic activity, softer consumer spending, and the peso’s depreciation weighed on revenues.
“We’re hopeful for 2027 because in 2026, I think the book is closed,” Lim said on the sidelines of MAP’s General Membership Meeting. “We know there’s a little blip in terms of our businesses, our revenues, but the economy is very slow.”
For the fourth quarter, Lim said a meaningful pickup would depend largely on consumers regaining confidence and purchasing power, a difficult prospect amid weak economic conditions.
“I can’t see the math. If the money doesn’t go down, where will the consumer get it?” he said.
Lim also cautioned against relying on household borrowing to sustain consumption, warning that rising personal debt could eventually further constrain spending.
The business group is more optimistic about 2027, when easing geopolitical tensions and election-related activity could help lift economic activity, improve sentiment, and encourage companies to invest.
“Hopefully next year it’s better. Let’s plan for some growth and a little bit more so that we can move,” Lim said.
Still, the outlook hinges on policy stability. Lim said businesses can navigate difficult conditions if they have greater clarity on the policy and political environment.
“Business should always have predictability and certainty so we can plan,” he said.
The message underscores a cautious corporate outlook for the remainder of 2026. Rather than expecting a late-year surge, businesses appear to be positioning for a recovery that may depend on stronger confidence, clearer policies, and renewed consumer spending in 2027.
