Filipino households and businesses face another week of divergent fuel price movements, as local retailers prepare to implement mixed adjustments driven by shifting geopolitical signals, seasonal demand, and supply chain disruptions. Jetti Petroleum President Leo Bellas indicated that gasoline prices are projected to rise by ₱1.50 to ₱1.70 per liter, while diesel prices offer brief relief with an expected drop of ₱1.90 to ₱2.10 per liter. The outlook for kerosene remains unspecified for the week following a sharp increase in the previous period.
The impending surge in gasoline costs threatens to increase daily operational expenses for transport operators, delivery services, and private motorists, adding upward pressure on overall consumer spending. Conversely, the rollback in diesel provides a temporary reprieve for commercial transport fleets, agricultural logistics, and industrial sectors that rely heavily on the fuel. However, energy officials caution that price volatility will persist. Department of Energy Oil Industry Management Bureau Director Atty. Rino Abad noted that while substantial diesel reductions may continue if G7 nations persist in releasing their strategic reserves, price trajectories for gasoline and kerosene remain highly unpredictable.
The opposing price trends stem from a complex mix of global drivers. International crude markets saw temporary relief after US President Donald Trump signaled that military action against Iran prior to the US elections was off the table, alongside reports of productive regional discussions and the resumption of Chinese fuel exports following the Golden Week holiday. Despite these cooling factors, persistent threats to shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, the broader regional conflict, tight physical supply for gasoline, and offshore production shutdowns in the US Gulf Coast due to an approaching hurricane continue to keep price floors elevated across fuel categories.
The latest adjustments build upon last week’s movements, where the Department of Energy permitted per-liter price increases of ₱1.93 for gasoline and ₱3.30 for kerosene, paired with a ₱1.30 reduction for diesel. Department data for the National Capital Region recorded average per-liter pump prices at ₱87.20 for RON 91 gasoline, ₱95.70 for diesel, and ₱125.00 for kerosene, reflecting a dramatic escalation from pre-conflict levels earlier in the year when prices stood at ₱53.00, ₱60.79, and ₱84.67 respectively.
To shield the domestic economy from future global shocks, Energy Secretary Sharon Garin announced plans to establish a weekly National Fuel Risk Index to monitor supply, prices, and demand, establishing a rules-based framework for managing shipping disruptions, tanker shortages, and refinery outages. Complementing this initiative, the Department of Energy continues to pursue the creation of a Philippine Strategic Petroleum Reserve aimed at expanding domestic fuel reserves to 60 days and eventually 90 days, significantly upgrading the country’s current minimum inventory requirements of 15 days for finished products, 30 days for crude oil, and seven days for liquefied petroleum gas.
